The Three Forces Of El Dorado

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Given the rise of prediction markets, this week arguably represents the most frenzied campaign since the historic PASPA decision in 2018. Buttressed by massive capital injection from substantial funding rounds, operators have spent handsomely on celebrity endorsements. Over the last week, ads featuring LeBron James, Sydney Sweeney, Marshawn Lynch and Jeremy Piven have showered the airwaves. Even Pete Sampras, who disappeared from the public spotlight for the better part of two decades, resurfaced in a US Open spot for Kalshi.

While Polymarket pulled off a coup with the signings of James, Eli Manning and Derek Jeter, a Novig ad featuring Sweeney arguably received as much fanfare. Sweeney, an Emmy Award-nominated actress known for her role in HBO’s Euphoria series, stars in the spot titled “Just Sports.” As of Friday afternoon, the Novig post on social media platform X received at least nine million views.

Throughout the ad, Novig throws shade on its rivals for offering niche markets on events such as the timeframe for when traders believe that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro will be removed from office. Unlike operators such as Kalshi and Polymarket, Novig has opted to limit its offerings to purely sports. “No betting on wars, or deaths…or politics,” Sweeney mused.

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Funds held in customer accounts also declined sharply. Operators held £886.6 million ($1.19 billion), down 13.9% from the same point a year earlier.

Retail betting diverged significantly from the wider market, with non-remote betting GGY falling 3.3% to £2.4 billion ($3.2 billion). The number of betting shops dropped for a 12th consecutive reporting period to 5,617 premises—a 3.6% annual decline (down 208 shops from March 2025).

Other retail sectors performed better. Bingo GGY increased 8.2% to £703.8 million ($941.8 million), while arcade GGY rose 10.7% to £800.1 million ($1.07 billion).

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On Monday, the Gambling Regulators European Forum (GREF) announced a reshuffle of its board following the departure of two long-standing members and the appointment of two new officers.

GREF is a cooperative network bringing together national gambling regulators across Europe and beyond to facilitate dialogue, exchange information and share best practice on regulatory strategies. 

Tim Miller, who resigned from the UK Gambling Commission earlier this year, has stepped down from the GREF board and has relinquished his role as treasurer.