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Its failure also leaves unresolved disputes over prediction markets and state and tribal gaming authorities, outside a comprehensive congressional framework. Those issues took on new significance during Senate floor debate over the bill, as concerns about federal commodities oversight extended to markets typically regulated at the state or tribal level.
The latest filing is an early step in filling some of that regulatory gap for the CFTC. The agency can issue regulations under its current statutory authority, but those regulations would not necessarily be as permanent as legislation passed by Congress.
For now, the important news is that the CFTC has officially started the administrative process. Only once the rulemaking progresses and the underlying proposal is available for public review will the extent of its eventual crypto framework become clear.
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Operators and companies linked to them are also prohibited from acquiring, licensing, or exploiting rights to sporting events held in the country. In the area of administrative penalties, the rapporteur’s text incorporates the new infractions into the existing sanctions system in Law 14.790 of 2023, which provides for fines of up to BRL2 billion ($392.8 million).
One of the main changes made by Vieira is the creation of the crime of promoting unauthorised betting operators. The penalty is one to five years imprisonment. This may be increased by one-sixth to two-thirds when the promotion is done by a digital influencer, athlete, or well-known person, due to their greater ability to reach the public.
The rapporteur also added a rule designed to prevent the immediate movement of professionals between companies in the sector and bodies responsible for authorising, classifying, regulating and overseeing betting. Anyone who has maintained a significant link with an operator or representative entity of the market will be barred, for 24 months, from assuming certain regulatory functions. A quarantine period of the same duration will also apply in the reverse movement, for the transition from the regulatory body to the private sector.
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During the 2025-26 NBA season, Kalshi made waves by granting an equity stake to two-time league MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo. According to the Wall Street Journal, Sweeney’s representatives approached Novig to express interest as a potential investor. Eventually, the company granted her an undisclosed amount in equity. The increased role of celebrity endorsements in the space is a trend that will likely receive closer observation in the coming months.
During the second half of 2026, prediction markets have endured the wrath of a plethora of state governors, most notably Kathy Hochul of New York.
As the NFL season begins, a state in close proximity to the New England Patriots became the latest to attempt to curb the influence of the trading platforms. On 10 September, one day after the Pats’ season-opening loss to the Seattle Seahawks, Connecticut Governor Ned Lamont addressed the growth of the markets during a speech in downtown Hartford. On the same day, the Connecticut Department of Consumer Protection issued cease-and-desist orders to nine unregulated operators, including Polymarket, Robinhood and Underdog Predict.
