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Analyst Gautam Chhugani and team are forecasting $410 billion in yes/no exchange turnover this year, implying that if the $10 trillion estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than twentyfold increase from the 2026 tally.
The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.
If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.
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Much of the onus for the increasing black market is put on increasingly restrictive policies enforced by regulators across the licensed sector.
Taking a deeper look at these restrictive driving black market activity, up to 46% of the markets covered in the report enforced “significant advertising restrictions” on the regulated market, including in Belgium, Bulgaria, Coratia, Cyprus, Germany, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro, the Netherlands, Poland, Romania and Spain.
Additionally the report cited taxing consumers (in 29% of the 28 markets covered), and banned products (14%), were also propelling growth in illegal gambling. A lack of choice, due to monopolies in place in five markets has also driven the rise.
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“Partnering with SlyBet is an important step for Wazdan as we continue to grow in Bulgaria and across regulated European markets. We are always looking for new opportunities to bring our games to more players, and SlyBet gives us another great platform to showcase our portfolio.”
The partnership doesn’t end at this stage, as Wazdan is going to further implement new releases for the operator’s local content library and offer players new opportunities as they come back to play.
Wazdan has been methodically building up its footprint across regional and European markets, with the supplier signing up a content partnership with Jupiter Gaming earlier in September, and similarly bringing its portfolio of player-favorite games to the operator in the UK.